The role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in transforming our world has not gone unnoticed, especially in 2023. Fueling a robust rally in the S&P 500, AI has ignited significant investor interest. While small cap stocks might be late to the party, there is no doubt that AI holds the potential to become a pioneering secular growth trend.
The aftermath of a challenging 2022 saw growth stocks struggling. Additionally, the collapse of several regional banks pivoted investor attention towards the boundless potential of AI. The popular adoption of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, with its impressive metrics, further solidified this interest, especially given its adeptness at generating text, graphics, and videos with newfound ease.
Major players like Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia haven’t been mere spectators. Their aggressive investments in AI have reaped substantial rewards, with their stocks soaring to new heights. The Microsoft-OpenAI alliance and Google’s innovative Bard are a testament to the vast potentials of AI.
While it might be premature to gauge the real economic imprint of AI, its disruptive potential is undeniable.
AI: The Cornerstone of Technology
In the realm of growth stocks, understanding secular growth trends is pivotal. In a 2019 piece, we categorized them as: (1) Foundational Technology, (2) Replacement Product, Existing Market, and (3) New Product, New Market. AI unarguably belongs to the foundational category, and here’s why:
Technologies like AI aren’t merely disruptive; they lay the groundwork for a plethora of businesses. The way the internet spearheaded the rise of eCommerce and social media, and smartphones paved the way for ridesharing and food delivery apps, AI is set on a similar transformative path.
Nvidia’s monumental success, with its GPUs underpinning AI applications, is a glowing testament to this belief. Given AI’s versatility, its applications span industries, heralding an era of startups with an enormous influence on our lifestyles.
AI’s Expansive Commercial Reach
The full scope of AI remains a mystery, but its boundless potential is an open secret. Both DeepMind and Bill Gates have voiced their belief in AI’s groundbreaking influence on virtually all facets of life. From Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot, which significantly optimizes developer productivity, to AI’s promising applications across industries, the future is AI-centric.
A few noteworthy contributions of AI include:
- Enhanced Efficiency and Productivity: AI’s automation and machine learning algorithms optimize operations across sectors.
- Data-Driven Decision Making: By analyzing vast datasets, AI offers invaluable insights, paving the way for innovation and a competitive edge.
- Personalized Experiences: AI’s knack for personalization transforms industries like e-commerce and healthcare.
Tracing back to Robert Solow’s growth model, the quintessential role of technological progress in long-term economic growth becomes evident. AI’s monumental promise lies in its unparalleled potential to amplify productivity.
AI Investing: The Roadmap
When exploring AI investments, consider:
- Steer clear of AI replaceable businesses: Companies like Chegg, which couldn’t pivot swiftly, suffered massive losses.
- Spot long-term winners: Beyond the tech giants, focus on emerging stars in the AI realm, particularly in sectors like semiconductor capital equipment.
- Stay wary of fleeting hypes: Companies with authentic technology adoption and concrete revenue targets are the real deal.
The Road Ahead
AI’s lasting impact is undeniable. But as with all technological evolutions, challenges will arise. What’s essential is recognizing AI’s transformative role and the vast opportunities it unfolds.
Prudent investors should seek out game-changing companies in this AI era but stay wary of temporary hypes. It’s not always the pioneers that win, but often the strategic second-movers. Being based in San Francisco, the tech capital, we are ideally positioned to witness the rise and dominance of AI, eagerly anticipating its future impacts on investment returns.
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