Adjustable Rate Mortgages: The Once Money-Saver Now Losing Its Luster

In the grand puzzle of homeownership, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) has typically represented a tantalizing piece for many home buyers. Known for their initial low rates that make the early years of homeownership more affordable, ARMs have often been the go-to solution in times of soaring 30-year fixed-mortgage rates. However, today’s mortgage landscape tells a different story.

Presently, the appeal of ARMs is rather dim, thanks to a financial twist of fate. With the average rate on ARMs oscillating between 6.5% and 7.21%—almost equivalent to the average 30-year fixed rate of 6.95% as of July 5, as stated by Bankrate—borrowers now face an unfamiliar conundrum. Without the allure of lower initial monthly payments, the use of ARMs brings the risk of potentially higher future payments if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high.

This shift in dynamics comes as an additional blow for aspiring homebuyers grappling with steep mortgage rates and a scarcity of affordable homes. “Going with an ARM now rather than a 30-year fixed is a pure gamble on lower rates since the initial-rate advantage has all but disappeared,” explains Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

McBride’s recommendation? Opt for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and consider refinancing if rates drop. But before making that decision, it’s crucial to comprehend the underlying dynamics influencing the current ARM scenario.

Why the ARM Appeal Is on a Downswing

The charm of ARMs has always been their rhythmic dance with interest rates. In 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovered around 5.55%, ARMs offered significantly more attractive rates ranging from 4.19% to 5.46%. Not surprisingly, they were a more appealing choice for many home buyers.

Fast-forward to now, and ARMs’ popularity has dipped. Mortgage applications for ARMs fell to 6% for the week ending June 30, from around 10% the same time last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The cause? An inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates supersede long-term rates—contrary to the norm. This anomaly wipes out the fundamental advantage of ARMs, which traditionally flourish with lower initial rates due to their shorter term compared to 30-year mortgages.

ARMs: A Calculated Risk for Some

Despite their current shortcomings, ARMs haven’t completely lost their shine. They may still serve the needs of specific groups of buyers, such as those intending to sell their homes before the ARM rate resets, or property investors looking to flip.

If rates decrease during the reset period, ARMs could lead to lower rates, putting these buyers at an advantage over their counterparts with a 30-year fixed mortgage who may face hefty closing costs to refinance.

ARMs are also being favored by buyers in the market for higher-priced homes. A slightly lower interest rate on a large loan can lead to considerable savings over the fixed portion of the loan term. For instance, a $2 million ARM with a 6.25% interest rate fixed for 10 years could result in monthly savings of about $327 compared to a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.5%.

The Potential Reemergence of ARMs

While the current situation seems bleak for ARMs, the potential for a resurgence exists. When the Federal Reserve eventually slashes short-term rates, ARMs might regain their former allure. Most home buyers, however, will need to weigh the potential savings against the certainty of a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

This means buyers considering an ARM should still ensure they can afford the maximum possible interest rate on the ARM if necessary, even if faced with unexpected circumstances like a job loss, advises Robert Heck, senior vice president at Morty.

In conclusion, while ARMs may not be the money-saving darling they once were, they still hold a place in the diverse landscape of mortgage options. It’s essential for prospective homebuyers to assess their financial stability, risk tolerance, and long-term homeownership plans before deciding on the most fitting mortgage path. As always, a well-informed decision will stand the test of time, regardless of fluctuations in the financial climate.