Amid recent recession talks, the haunting memory of the 2008-2009 Great Recession reemerges in the public consciousness. This era was marked by the loss of over 8 million jobs and a gut-wrenching 50% plunge in the S&P 500®. However, Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) suggests a comforting outlook, projecting that the potential upcoming recession is likely to be relatively short-lived and milder in contrast. The reasons behind this optimism center on the four crucial sectors of the economy—banks, labor, housing, and household and corporate finance—all of which are in a much healthier state than they were 15 years ago.
1. Robust Financial State of Banks
Today, the banking sector exhibits significantly more resilience than before the 2008 crisis. The bygone catastrophe was largely due to the collapse of the housing market and complex financial products like mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), causing widespread financial contagion.
However, one silver lining from the 2008 crisis was the regulatory overhaul. The Dodd-Frank Act, along with other legislative measures, introduced more stringent capital requirements and greater transparency, particularly for mega-banks. Cait Dourney, an analyst at AART, notes that large banks now boast twice as much capital relative to their assets as they did in 2008, creating an effective buffer against potential losses.
In effect, the risk of a repeat financial crisis is reduced. In case of a future recession, the number of bank failures will likely be limited, containment and remedial measures are expected to be more efficient, and the likelihood of a catastrophic ripple effect across the financial system is diminished.
2. Tightened Labor Market
Despite recent fears of a recession and some layoffs, the labor market in 2023 remains solid, with unemployment rates near historic lows.
Contrarily, the 2008 financial crisis instigated rampant job losses across a variety of industries, with unemployment rates peaking at 10%. The recovery was painfully slow, with the unemployment rate taking five years to return to pre-recession levels.
In 2023, the scenario is dramatically different. Unemployment rates have remained below 4% since February 2022. Moreover, an aging US society has led to older workers retiring and a sustained tight labor market. Thus, despite potential economic headwinds, the labor market is well positioned to weather a potential downturn.
3. Reduced Risk of a Housing Crash
Regulatory changes, including stricter lending standards, have decreased the likelihood of a repeat of the housing crisis that triggered the Great Recession.
In the mid-2000s, the easy availability of subprime mortgages contributed to a housing bubble. As the bubble burst, many homeowners were left owing more on their mortgages than their properties were worth, leading to a rash of foreclosures.
Fast-forward to 2023, there are far fewer homes for sale due to lower levels of new construction and the home buying frenzy encouraged by low interest rates in 2020 and 2021. Consequently, homeowners are less likely to sell their properties due to higher mortgage rates, leading to lower supply and firmer prices.
Hence, the severe nationwide decline in housing prices seen during the Great Recession is unlikely to recur. The overall housing market’s health reduces the risk of a crash, contributing to the projected milder nature of the next recession.
4. Strong Corporate and Household Balance Sheets
In contrast to the pre-2008 era, corporations and households are now less indebted. The stimulus payments during the pandemic era, low unemployment, wage gains, and a buoyant stock market have left households and corporations with a stronger financial cushion.
Corporations, too, have taken advantage of low interest rates during the pandemic to refinance their debt at more favorable terms. They are less affected by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes, and healthy consumer spending has contributed to margin expansion for businesses.
In essence, the fortified financial state of consumers and corporations has created a buffer that reduces the need for cost-cutting measures, layoffs, or retrenchments, thereby further minimizing the potential impact of a recession.
Concluding Thoughts
While it’s impossible to forecast the future with absolute certainty, and unknown factors can always shift the economic landscape, the stronger state of banks, labor market, housing, and corporate and household finance suggest that the next recession is likely to be milder than the Great Recession of 2008-2009. This is not to downplay the challenges of a potential economic downturn, but to emphasize that our economic infrastructure today is more resilient and better prepared to withstand it.
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