Global Economy

This Fourth of July, motorists across the nation are gearing up for road trips and family reunions, fueled by the significant dip in gas prices compared to the previous year. This decline in fuel cost is not only revving up the holiday spirit but also making a tangible impact on people’s travel decisions. Take Mathew Alvarez, a 36-year-old machinist from Los Angeles, for instance. Last year, the record-high gas prices prevented Alvarez from making the 100-mile journey to his family in Tehachapi, California, during the holiday season. As a response…

In the world of agriculture and food production, a new trend is causing ripples of concern across the United States. China’s increasing investment in U.S. farmland is a topic of considerable debate, with the National Black Farmers Association’s President, John Boyd Jr., leading the charge. His apprehensions center around China’s potential impact on U.S. food security, particularly in light of its growing control over American farmland and related industries. China’s Growing Farmland Investments Over the past few years, the trend of Chinese-owned companies purchasing vast amounts of rural farmland in…

From July 2022, the US bond market has witnessed a phenomenon that has traditionally been regarded as a warning sign for the economy: an inversion of the yield curve. As of May 29, 2023, the 2-year Treasury yield topped the 10-year rate, and the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread fell to -0.84%. While the yield curve inverting doesn’t guarantee an economic downturn, it’s a signal that has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, thus creating a heightened sense of concern. Understanding what the yield curve is and what…

With negotiations underway, a US default remains a low but distinct possibility. When might the default “x-date” fall – and how will markets respond? The US risks default in a matter of weeks unless Congress can reach a deal to raise the country’s borrowing limit. While negotiations are underway, if the “x-date” (see below) passes without the debt ceiling being raised, coupon payments and redemptions of Treasury securities will stop. While technical lapses have occurred – such as the 1979 check-processing glitch that delayed some redemption requests – a true…

Former Fed economist John Roberts does an exercise on what a lower 2023 unemployment rate projection (of 4.2%, instead of 4.6%) could do to FOMC’s SEP. To keep inflation on the current projected path, the terminal rate estimate might go up to 5.6% The economy in 2022 was remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. Although residential construction fell, consumer spending continued to expand. The labor market remained strong in the second half of the year, with payrolls rising 357 thousand per month and the unemployment rate…

It’s no secret that the global economy has been struggling for years now. From high unemployment to rising prices, the economic outlook has been bleak. But, there’s good news! The economic outlook is brightening as inflation finally begins to ease. In this blog post, we’ll explore how the global economic outlook is improving and why inflation is easing. We’ll also look at what this means for businesses and consumers around the world. Get ready to dive into the data and see how it all adds up in the end! The…

As the world continues to grapple with the impacts of COVID 19, the global economy in 2023 is looking increasingly uncertain. It is more important than ever for businesses to understand the interconnectedness of the global economy, position themselves for maximum growth, determine the best strategies for international expansion, and embrace the benefits of digital currency. In this blog post, we will explore these topics, as well as innovative investment opportunities, changes in international trade regulations, new markets for expansion, risk mitigation strategies, leveraging of new technologies, and the cultivation…